We are out of recession, but
It was slightly higher than expected, and it is the first growth the GDP has seen since the third quarter 2008 which would make some term this news as an end of the recession. Others, who believe that the recession started in 4th quarter2007; would say that we need another quarter of growth to say that we would be out of recession. But the one question on our lips is : When is the jobs coming back?
This should be the best news for us to hear but for a long time, but please forgive us for not being so optimistic. President Obama should be hailed as a savior of the economy, but please for give us, President Obama, for we do not give a crap for “technical mumbo-jumbo”, till we see the jobs coming back! I think that people genuinely feel that this increase in GDP is just because of the “fat-cats making money” while we are still suffering.
That is not true. The main reason that we are having a good GDP result is because the personal consumption expenditures has increased by about the same amount GDP has. In other words, people are more confident in the economy now than they were three months ago. That was the biggest reason that the GDP grew.
There were still losses in Private domestic investment in non-residential structures, government investment and spending in local government and most importantly, personal disposable income. This GDP figure does show the fact that we hold about 3.5% less money now than we had it a few months ago.
So where is the positive news coming from? The following show a double digit quarter to quarter growth. Personal Domestic consumption of durable goods, residential, exports and imports. The double digit in growth shows that trade is back, but the sad thing is that our imports (16.4%) are increasing faster than our exports(14.7%).
I think that you may understand what I feel about the GDP by the second paragraph in this article. I see no point in the economy growing when the job indicators show no good results. I also think that it would be the reversal of the job loss rate that would be the correct indicator of growth. Let me put it in numbers. We have lost at least 8.5million jobs since the recession began. Until and when we put at least half of those lost jobs back, then and only then, we talk of recovery.
I feel rather angry about this. For example, when we exit a recession our number roared back to recovery with unemployment numbers increasing. Germany exited the recession with a growth rate of 0.3% but unemployment was down. France exited with a mere 0.2% growth but unemployment was down. Why are we bucking the trend?Why is the economy improving but the jobs are not coming back? Are we doing something very wrong or very right?
That being said, if President Obama really needs to have a pat on the back for the figures. He has lead the economy out in some manner. So I give credit where credit is due. I think that if this were the previous administration, they would be gloating about this and the President is not.
But the President is still under my sights for criticism. I do not care if the GDP shows a 20% growth in the fourth quarter; as long as the jobless numbers increases, you are failing! I would still give him time though.
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Tagged with: Barack Obama • def • Durable good • Employment • Government • Gross domestic product • iped • Local government • obama • Recession • Unemployment
Filed under: News • Opinion • Politics
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