2 of our 3 predictions came out true with NY 23 being a stunner. I really do not think anyone expected NY 23 to experience what I call a Ron Paul effect on Doug Hoffman. As for the other two, I think that there are some lessons to be learned.

First, lets talk look at the gubernatorial race in Virginia. I suspect that if it was a race between the incumbent Governor Tim Kaine and Governor-elect Bob McDonnell, the race would not have been such a blowout. This goes down to terrible political management a.k.a Democratic political management by Creigh Deeds.

We can go about all the twists and turns, but to win American elections, you got to do two things. One is that you got to keep your base and the other is to get the Independent vote. And in both fields, Creigh Deeds lost. He went far to the right of his usual positions, to the right of center. That alienated his left wing base. Also, Independents could see through his insincerity right away. This was really a no brainer.

Governor Corzine’s case is a bit different though. The reason he lost to Governor elect was because, to put it simply, he screwed up big time while he was supposed to do his job. While we know that Governor elect Christie has a checkered past, there is still a chance that he would not screw up like Governor Corzine did.

Secondly, as we stated yesterday, Independent candidate Chris Daggett, whom we endorsed, definitely stole more would take more votes from Governor Corzine than Governor elect Christie. Voters always value deeds over promises.

Lastly, I would like to talk about the shock effect in New York 23rd congressional district. Remember, this is a place that has never been Democratic in over a decade. And the manner that it has fallen is astonishing. While it is debatable that Daggett caused Governor Corzine a victory, there is no doubt that Diedre Scozzafava cost Doug Hoffman his seat. 5% of the voters wrote her name down!

I really do not think that she intentionally told her voters to write her name down when she has already withdrawn from the race. This is what I term as the Ron Paul effect, because there were so many people that put Representative Ron Paul’s name down even though he was out of contention in last year’s Presidential elections. While his votes were harmless last year, this cost Hoffman.

While I have mixed feelings about the “Ron Paul” effect, I am ecstatic with the result this time. It is really a slap to the nutty far right that tried to hijack this process. What would this do in the next yeat? Should polls be changed to include this effect? Should it even be allowed, since we already have Independents and Primaries?

I was really stunned by the treatment that the far right led by Governor Sarah Palin dished out on Scozzafava. I hope that this stops them in the tracks right now. They planned to go after 25 moderate Republican next, with people like Governor Charlie Christ and Senator Lindsey Graham.

So at the end of the day, it is not really a bad day for people who think like us. We stayed neutral in Virginia. We supported the Independent candidate in New Jersey, but we know that the system was against him. We got the race prediction for New York 23rd Congressional District wrong and we loved those results!

So not a bad day at all!

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