In the recent weeks on unrest and turmoil, it seems impossible that there could be a middle ground in Iranian politics, to most people. Yet, by any accords the person that is walking on that line and could sway Iran in any direction possible is ex-President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

First, a background on ex-President Rafsanjani. He right now the only balance of power that can remove the Supreme Leader in Iran, but there are many ways to remove President Rafsanjani too. He was a President from 1989-1997, and lost to current President Ahmadinejad. He was considered a right-winder till recently, where he sought to mend ties with the US. He still wants nuclear weapons and hates Israel though.

The reason that he is considered to be in the middle right now is very simple: He has not endorsed anyone yet. He has been giving mixed signals. He was initially delighted with the turnout in Iran. He also then made a bizarre claim that there would not be a power crisis after this crisis fades out. His most recent statement is that Iranians are still very bitter about the elections despite the recount.

However, something has changed. In the recent hours, there have been calls for the “Reformists” from the Moussavi camp to be indicted on charges of stirring trouble and causing unrest. I think that this would be the time where you can see on which side, President Rafsanjani is on. If he says that they should stand trial, you know that he is with the conservatives. If he is against it, you would know that he is with the “Reformists” or at least not bent on them going down.

It would also be interesting to see how he is going to handle the military complex within Iran that has seen its power surge in recent days. When the crisis began, Iran was a dictatorship that was very much influenced by clerics.

However, the crisis has divided the clerical world in Iran in half, right down the middle. It is the military and militant forces like the Basiji that has usurped the power vacuum. This is one area that some Republicans got it wrong, calling Iran a “Mullah dictatorship”. But have no doubt though, that the person in charge is still Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The tide of American-Iranian relations is still in rough waters. It is up to President Rafsanjani more than anyone else to steer it clear or otherwise. There is some signs of his influence working. There are already several reports which ST cannot confirm that claim that President Ahmadinejad wants to talk to President Obama on some undisclosed matters. That would not have happened without President Rafsanjani.

In most dramatic terms, the fate of Middle East, America and potentially rests on the judgment of President Rafsanjani. He is now at a cross-roads of history. Lets hope that he chooses the right path, for the sake of Iran and the Middle East.

Suggested reading : CNN, AL Jazeera, Reuters

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